Sports betting example: Two point spreads at -110 each imply a probability of 52.38%. Real-life example: A coin flip at 50% heads and 50% tails adds up to 100% probability. But in sports betting, the book gets its edge by offering odds that go over 100%. The probabilities of anything in real life happening should add up to exactly 100%. Let's pretend the boost is FanDuel taking Packers moneyline against the 49ers from -250 to -200. And here's a spreadsheet that can do most of the math for you.Īfter doing this for a little bit, it will often become obvious what's a good boost and what's not. Here's how to figure out if the boost is valuable or not. We need to figure out the real probability on our own. We can use what sportsbooks are already giving us and do some simple math to compare the true odds to the boosted odds.īooks usually have a dedicated section for boosts, and will offer the 'previous odds' and the 'boosted odds.' But we don't care about the previous odds because sportsbooks are always trying to convince you it's a good boost. We usually look for boosts with 8% or more expected value (win $8 for every $100 wagered), though you can use a different threshold depending on your risk tolerance.įortunately, you don't need to have your own models or projections to find the expected value for many of these boosts.

Instead, we're looking for smaller odds boosts offered every day that have positive expected value (EV), meaning if you bet them enough times over a large sample, you'll make money.

Draftkings odds boost max bet